You are invited to read a translation of the article of Mr Milan Zver, a Member of the European Parliament, that was published in the Vecer newspaper on the 26 September 2013 (photo: Večer).
German elections: A rational choice
At last, German federal elections, the largest and the most important democratic event in Europe, took place. The largest event - because the German democratic space is the biggest - and the most important event - because the German elections are always an indicator of political climate not only in Germany but also in the region. Usually, the elections in Germany influence also the upcoming elections in the wider region.
In comparison with the previous elections which were held in normal circumstances, these latest elections were a specific test for Angela Merkel because they were marked by the crisis. It is true that Germany was not so badly affected by the crisis as other countries but nevertheless the crisis strongly affected German political scene. If nothing else the economic growth was slower than in previous years, moreover, German people devoted a lot of their money to other countries.
Many expected that the social democrats would try to benefit from the crisis. With their rather populist and demagogic thesis that the austerity measures are not necessary they tried to stir up the emotions of those who were a bit more affected by the crisis. But once again Germans voted rationally or as one of the greatest minds of the 20th century, a German Max Weber would define it: Zweckrational. Man can act and decide in that way only when he/she rationally considers and predicts all the key aspects and the possible consequences resulting from the decision. Wertrational - the second, lowest form of the rational behaviour by Weber - assumes that the actions are based on political values or ideological affiliation. Of course, these are the ideal types of behaviour and they cannot be easily transferred into the typical behaviour of the voters of the respective political option. However, it appears that a mature German voter does not fall into all sorts of traps precisely because of the rational reflection.
Left demagogic bait "Stop to austerity!" therefore did not go well through in Germany. Besides the ideology, values and interests a personal trust in a politician is also important; it is achieved through the politician’s attitude and experiences that voters have with him/ her. For a rational political choice of a traditional European voter this is more important than a constant search for something new (new parties, new movements, faces etc.). Such behaviour is typical for the non-consolidated democracies, such as the Slovenian. The rational selection gives more importance to the content than to the form. The election result in Germany guarantees that it will continue to be a politically stable and economically viable state, regardless of the fact that the political picture had changed significantly. The liberals were eliminated which means they suffered a heavy blow. This is the party that played an important role in the recent German history during the process of the reunification of Germany. With Hans-Dietrich Genscher the party also played an important role in the Slovenian fight for the independence.
The success story of the centre-right CDU/CSU is therefore spoiled by the fact that they do not have a fellow partner in the federal parliament with whom they could set up a consistent governing coalition. Not even the right Euro-sceptics had succeeded, although it is possible that they prevented Merkel of reaching the absolute majority. Assuming that the left parties will not create their own government coalition (because even the left oriented parties in Germany do not wish to collaborate with the neo-communist party Die Linke) difficult negotiations with Socialists and Greens await Merkel on the way to a majority coalition.
Angela Merkel stopped socialists
The key question is what the German results mean for the European Union? Angela Merkel is pro-European (French Commissioner Barnier stated that she represents values that Europe needs most at the moment). She advocates a strong Euro-zone and banking union, policies of fiscal balance, lower taxation and an investment for creation of new jobs. Thus we can once again expect strong economic growth. And increased competitiveness of the German economy is also good for Slovenia and the European economy as a whole.
The fact that Merkel mentioned Slovenia right after the elections, of course, means something to the politically literate public. Before the elections she did not want to mention this question because she did not wish to open another "a la Greek" case. But with this she gave a clear signal that the time has come to face the facts and that the Slovenian case will no longer be swept under the carpet, most certainly not till the next, European elections, which will take place already in May next year.
Victory of Angela Merkel may also affect the political situation in other Member States. I would argue that victory of the centre-right coalition in Germany has stopped the invasion of centre-left governments, which we have been witnessing across EU in the past years and that in a fact could once again move the electoral body to support the centre-right political parties. That scenario is possible to happen already at the next European elections. However, it is clear that voters will be most influenced by the internal domestic political actors. Thus the focus will once again be the national issues and the one who will be most convincing at those will at the end claim the victory. Even though we expected the Euro scepticism to play an important role, German elections have demonstrated the contrary. It may be slightly more pronounced at the extreme left or right but the main battle will be between the members of the centre-left socialist camp and the members of the centre-right camp. The latter constitutes European People's Party at the European level. At the forefront of political debate in campaign for the European elections will still be the economical in political crisis of late though.
A key problem that particularly new EU Member States will be faced with is how to attract more people to the ballot box. Also here can Germany, with its high turnout, serve as a good example. European elections 2014 will introduce several innovations that are likely to contribute to the greater participation. The most important one being that the leading candidates on the lists will be at the same time the candidates for the post of President of the European Commission. The fact that only the winner can become the chief of a European institution means that the democratic deficit will be gradually eliminated. Thus Euro sceptics will lose their argument of illegitimacy. Let's remember when Mr Nigel Farage often humorously wondered and asked President of European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso where was he elected and who elected him. Therefore, this innovation will be a great step forward in reducing the democratic deficit in the EU. I believe that democratization of the EU will continue and will further increase the legitimacy and the transparency of the European institutions.
